democrats won't soon forget the acquaintances they made in 2012 that propelled president obama to four moryears but what is in store for that term and what will the president be able to accomplish. history shows highs and lows for a second-term president. what can he learn from the mistakes and big breaks that shaped the country for the last 30 years? >> and a who's who to keep your eyes on for the coming year and years. will new names emerge as the leading voices of their party while old familiar ones still drive the early jockeying for the next presidential fight? happy holidays and new year, and hello from washington. this is a special year-end edition of the "the daily rundown." also a preview. i'm chuck todd, and all this hour, we're going to look at what lessons we got from 2012, what they'll mean for 2014. how power can shift in 2014, and who is taking the long hard look

at a bid for 2016. maybe we'll even slip in something about 2015 just for kicks. let's get right to my first brief. how did president obama weighed down by a jobless rate higher than any incumbent seeking re-election since fdr win 323 electoral votes, sweep 8 of 9 battleground seats? as the republican party picks up the pieces and looks ahead to 2016, here are lessons hopefuls from both parties might want to keep mind. if you don't define yourself, your opponent will do it for you. romney let the president's early attacks on his personal wealth and business background go largely unanswered. romney's campaign argued after a long and expensive primary, they had to choose how to spend at the time, limited funds, and they had to claim it was better

than defenses of his personal record. in the end, obama beat romney by ten points. on the economic values question that was this, which candidate is more in touch with people like you. 53% said romney's polauolicies d favor the rich. just 10% said that about the president's policies. and romney, the first republican nominee in the history of our poll to go into a convention with his personal rating under water and campaign with a painful number, just 47% of voters viewing him positively. the obama campaign was also able to get more bang for the buck because they bought ads early and they were careful about where to buy the ads. in the last week, they paid $5 fif 50 for a single ad in raleigh. the romney campaign had to pay $2,665 for the same ad. >> lesson two, the republican brand needs a hard look.

the gop's favorable rating has been under water for two years, since december 2010. if you take that out, it's been nearly five years. in our final full poll before the election, just 36% of voters said they had a positive view of the republican party. the democratic party's favorable rating was in positive territory, though just barely, at 42%/40%. but they put harsh republican rhetoric on immigration on full display. the todd akin/richard mourdock wing damaged the republicans. now as the party decides whether to moderate or modernize, it has to repair its image, particularly among key groups. demographics are destiny. romney won a higher percentage of the white vote than any canddant since ronald reagan. by 14 points among white women,

by 5 points among self-described independents. he won all these groups by more than george w. bush did in 2004, but he lost the election by a wider margin than john kerry. why? because the composition of the electorate changed. as the obama campaign predicted more than a year ago, the white portion of the electorate dropped from 74% in 2008 to 72% in 2012. the president carried nearly 8 in 10 non-white voters including an astounding 71% of latinos and 73% of asian voters and a of course, a whopping 93% of black voters. it remains a real question whether the democratic nominee in 2016 will be able to hold the obama coalition together, which also includes young voters, but the republican party is right to be re-examining its relationship with minorities. finally, lesson four, don't ignore the data. poll meater and more are right than wrong. they showed the president ahead. the romney campaign sincerely

believed until election day they would win. romney pollsters assumed their electorate would be whiter and older than it turned out to be. they didn't have enough voters. more than any cycle in recent history, many republicans bought into an alternative polling universe where the vast majority of pollers were a conspiracy vaeted by some mastermind determined to suppress voting. in 2016, they will hope to improve on the campaign data juggernaut. and the republican bubble is don't ignore the data that is available to anyone with a computer. second bucket, known as the second term curse. american presidents win re-election to have a rough year thanks to legislative overreach. sometimes it's souring relations with congress, unforeseen

external events and of course, scandal. and in his first post-election press conference, the president himself acknowledged his predecessors had their struggles. >> i don't presume that because i won an election that everybody suddenly agrees with me on everything. i'm more than familiar with all of the literature about the presidential overreach in second terms. >> but familiarity doesn't always do the trick. here's president clinton after his re-election in 1996. >> in modern times, second terms for presidents have been either disappointing or disastrous. i wonder if you have drawn any lessons on why that is so. >> the things which derail a second term are basically three. one is some external event intervenes and the president can't fulfill his dreams or hopes for his agenda. sometimes a president thinks he has more of a mandate than he does and tries to do too much.

and the third is that sometimes a president essentially just runs out of steam. >> in a november of 1972 after two weeks of reflection at camp david, president richard nixon told reporters, my study of elections in this country is that second terms almost inevitably are downhill. yes, richard nixon said that in '72. after a string of legislative successes in his first term and after narrowly winning a second term as president, president bush claimed a mandate. >> when you win, there is a feeling that the people have spoken and embraced your point of view. and that's what i intend to tell the congress. i earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and now i intend to spend it. >> spend it he did. just 16 months later, bush made this stark admission to the press corps. >> just after the 2004 election, you seemed have claimed an en

enviable balance of the capital. would you make that claim today? >> i would say i'm spending that capital on the war. >> not only did plummeting support for the war erode bush's second term, but he also overreached with the social security privatization push. his reform then collapsed under the weight of the other issues. they bungled the response to hurricane katrina and relations with congress soured to the point that when bush nominated harriet miers to the court, many republicans didn't even fall in line. after three weeks, bush was forsted to withdraw her nominati nomination. in 2008, his approval rating had sunk to a miserable 27%. congress had often been a thorn in the side of second-term presidents. it's a real question whether president obama will be able to forge a closer working relationship with congress this time around. then of course, there's the second-term scandal. clinton's second term dominated,

basically ended after a year because the lewinsky scandal began. congressional investigation and impeachment that derailed any agenda he hoped to push in that second four years. >> i have to go back to work on my state of the union speech. i worked on it until pretty late last night, but i want to say one thing to the american people. i want you to listen to me. i'm going to say this again. i did not have sexual relations with that woman. ms. lewinsky. >> ronald reagan pushed through a tax overhaul in his second term. he also became embroiled in the iran contra affair. >> a few months ago, i told the american people i did not trade arms for hostages. my heart and my best intentions still tell me that's true, but the facts and the evidence tell me it is not. >> there is a bright side, if lincoln hadn't had a second term, he wouldn't have won the

civil war. reagan's place in history was cemented by the end of the cold war, and fdr would have been remembered as the president who didn't end the great depression. still, second terms, they don't last four years. they're shorter than that. how long will obama have? is he aware that his second term domestically only lasts about a year to 18 months? finally, political junkies know we don't have to wait until 2016 or even 2014 for our next fix. just next year, we have blockbuster races for governor in two big states, virginia and new jersey. virginia, the clinton versus the tea party, as former democratic national leader takes on republican chair, ken puccinelli who put himself front and center in the challenge to the health care law is of course a tea party favorite and a favorite of social conservatives, but money and the backing of the clintons didn't do the trick for

mccullough last time around. key question this time, which flawed candidate wins this race or supposedly flawed candidate? mccullough is hoping to break this curse. since 1976, the party that wins the presidency loses the state's gubernatorial election the next year. it's never wavered. 20 2001, after bush was elected, mark warner, he defeated a republican. 52% of the vote. in 2005, after bush's election, tim kaine beat jerry kilgore by six points. bob mcdonnell won in obama's first year in office. it would turn out to be 40%. the electorate likely to be a little whiter, older, more conservative than it was in virginia. will it be conservative enough to elect ken kutch anele. speaking of the campaign, if you're thinking of working on

hillary's presidential campaign, you're supposed to send your resumf to terry mccullough. in new jersey, where the governor's race is all about one man, chris christie and 2016. he hopes to scare off any serious democratic competition while building a platform for future political success. both his run for a second term and his presidential ambitions will be shaped on how he managed hurricane sandy's recovery effort. will christie who famously declared now is not my time in december, make a presidential bid. watch the garden state if clues. he believes the biggest mistake romney made in 2006 was not trying to seek a second term in massachusetts. trying to avoid that. they believe their best shot at becoming the nominee in 2016 is winning the re-election in new jersey in 2015. we have a gaggle of campaign junkies joining us. stephanie madden, plus crystal,

and perry bacon. they'll all be here next. we made a list, checked it twice, and now we're going beyond hillary and jeb. we'll have the politicians to watch in the thew year. you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. every aisle. it only takes a few twists and turns for those bright ideas to make the new year even brighter. more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. start fresh and save with hdx 20 gallon totes, a special buy at just $5.88 a piece.

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call it the "the daily rundown's" dirty dozen, the 12 people we'll be watching closely over the next 12 months. some of them are already household names and the rest we expect will be pretty soon. on the democratic side, vice president biden, secretary of state, hillary clinton, bennett, jerry brown, elizabeth warren, and angus king who is an independent but will caucus with the democratics on the

republican side. marco rubio, mike pence, jeb bush, and soon to be former senator from south carolina jim demint. joining me now, our end of the year gaggle, crystal lizza, perry bacon, stephanie cutter was the deputy campaign manager for obama's campaign, and madden was a senior adviser for romney's campaign. hello. happy new year, although we asked all of you to pick, i threw out my dozen and i asked you to pick two you were going to feedback. we're not going to do the 2016 conversation now, but we'll do it in a few minutes. who are the few who jumped out at you? >> i'm a little nierdy, so i picked michael bennet, the colorado senator, because he's

the head of the committee which means he's tasked with trying to again keep a democratic senate majority, going to be difficult. you have 20 democratic seats up, only 10 republican seats up. >> and he wants to be senate majority leader some day. >> they asked him two years ago. he said no. he said yes this time. >> you also said pence. why pence? >> he spent time in congress. he's now the governor of indiana. i think he's a guy who we underrate in terms of his influence. we have seen in places like ohio, florida, wisconsin, how governors, particularly republican governors, can have real influence on the conversation. pence is a conservative who is a believer and he's going to push an agenda that will sort of outline 2013. >> all right, perry, you picked two governors. >> jerry brown really important. first time ever since 1933, california has two majority, meaning two thirds of the house and senate are democrat. jerry brown and the democrats can do whatever they want. we have basically one party

government and i'm curious what that means. >> how does he use it. >> a liberal panacea for the first time. >> and you went with a conserve tf potential rising star in south carolina who is struggling. >> nikki haley is struggling in her state. at the same time, she's a big national figure. the republicans are looking for diverse faces, and she's one of the leading ones. i'm curious to see what she does. >> stephanie, your picks were -- one was predictable, one was a little unpredictable. >> i picked elizabeth warren who is my home state's new senator. she has senator kennedy's seat so it's important to me. i think she's probably the most high-profile freshman senator. >> without a doubt, probably since hillary clinton? >> i think you're right. and she's coming in the same way, keeping her head down, looking for people to work with, reach across the aisle,

moderating. i don't know, i don't want to guess, but i know there are some great things she can accomplish there. potentially, it's rumored she could be on the senate banking committee, her area of expertise. this will be interesting to watch. >> she's going to butt heads with democrats. that's going to be interesting. and your other pick? >> paul ryan. you know, obviously, as a democrat, it's somebody i have been watching for a long time. mitt romney's running mate. i think he came out of this race with a good reputation. and i think that, you know, he has a lot of opportunities this year. he's known as a reformer in the party. the republican party is doing a lot of introspection of what they need to do to address the changing demographics in this country and he has an opportunity to really step up. >> how does he do it in the house, which is more difficult? >> he's a leader in the house and he's known as being idealogical. >> kevin, you picked -- you got the big two. >> marco rubio is one of the people i picked because i think,

to perry's point, people are looking for new diverse voices inside the republican party. i think whether he likes it or not, marco rubio is going to become a national figure in that regard and he's going to sort of be emblematic of the republicans' abilities and their effort to reach out to newer audiences. and they're also looking for people that are going to represent the future of the party. so many conservatives are going to use, i think, marco rubio as a vessel for what they believe is rebuilding the party over the next four years. >> his first test is going to be immigration and how does he make it happen. how does he navigate it and still stay conservative. how does he not get pigeon holed as a hispanic republican and become a leader. >> and hillary clinton, what does she do? >> whether she likes it or not as well, is like this clinton industrial news complex. everything she does sparks speculation, sparks, you know, all of these incredible

obsessing over whether it's a position for this year, positioning for another year, positioning against somebody. i think that's just something that's going to happen. and i think a lot of people are going to be looking at whether or not her preparations look like and whether she can inherit the obama -- the obama era. >> you leave me with the four you didn't pick. joe biden, he's going to have to figure out how to navigate the clinton industrial news complex, i like that. angus king, the independent, can he actually be an independent? that's what i'm watching. jeb bush, may be the transitional leader of the republican party whether he likes it or not, and jim demint. do you buy ceo of the conservative movement? >> it's hard for jim demint -- many ways, sort of like this aol/time warner merger. it makes a lot of sense on paper. the question is will he be able to overcome some of the institutional challenges. jim demint going outside of the

senate into something that is out in the think tank world. >> we'll have more of this, more from the gaggle coming up, plus the six-year itch. is the bedrock of conventional wisdom or just a made-up thing. second term presidents struggling in his second midterm. we'll let you know whether we think it's real or a coincidence. but first, our special trivia question, who was the first president and the most recent president to officially start a term on a sunday? answer and more is coming up on "the daily rundown." we'll be right back. i moved here from russia and i gained weight because the portions were much larger. and i just felt like i needed to eat it all because it was so yummy. weight watchers online worked for me because it lets me live my life. i can still go out with my friends. i can still enjoy my favorite foods and drinks. it's just a smarter way of eating. i lost 40 lbs. wow it's amazing. my most favorite part of my new body is my bottom. [ laughs ]

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♪ you make me happy when skies are gray ♪ [ female announcer ] you know exactly what it takes to make them feel better. ♪ you make me happy [ female announcer ] that's why you choose children's tylenol. the same brand your mom trusted for you when you were young. ♪ how much i love you [ humming ] [ female announcer ] children's tylenol, the #1 brand of pain and fever relief recommended by pediatricians and used by moms decade after decade. [ humming ] well, as we get closer to the next midterm elections, you'll likely hear more about the so-called six-year itch. it's a theory that the party controlling the white house loses big in a two-term president's second midterm. today, we're taking a deep dive

into whether the six-year itch is real or simply a coincidence that just happened a few times. it's a look back at history, if you will, to show you what we're looking at. at the last five two-term presidents. truman, eisenhower, reagan, clinton, and bush. we're including truman because even though he wasn't elected in 1944, he took over after fdr died just three months into his term. nixon is out before he resigned before the second midterm shellacking. let's put up the numbers. in truman's second term, let's take a look here, as you can see, in that midterm in 9050, his democratic party lost 28 seats in the house, 6 in the senate. in ike's second term in 1958, the gop got wiped out, losing 48 house seats, 13 senate seats. reagan, '86, republicans lost 5 seats in the house, 8 seats in the senate. i'll tell you about that in a minute. but it cost republicans control of the senate in the process. president clinton, of course, is the big outlier here, if you'll

recall. he didn't lose anything in the second midterm, winning five house seats for his party, staying even in the senate. eight years later, president bush got hammered, losing 30 seats in the house, 6 in the senate, but control of both houses were gone from republicans. a couple things to note. the 1998 election under president clinton marked the only time a two-term president saw any gain in his second term in the modern era. typically, they have one really bad midterm and one not so bad. eisenhower's party did much better in his first term than the second. truman's party was the opposite. much worse in '46 than in '50. reagan, split decision. after gaining a senate seat in 1982, republicans lost seven seats -- a bunch in '86 and the control, but did better in the house. let's take a look at the next one, the two most recent

examples of midterms. bill clinton's democrats lost 54 house seats and 8 senate seats in 1994 before turning the tables with the surprise wins in 1998. they said it was due in part, maybe in whole, to the public backlash on the republicans who focused on the lewinsky scandal. bush had a good second first term, not a second term. the halo effect, before losing big in 2006. what is behind the truth of the six-year itch? it seems logical the political pendulum would swing from one party to the other over the course of six years, but when you look at each case, there are extenuating circumstances. by the time his second term rolled around, harry truman was six months into nrlt vention in korea. eisenhower was struggling with a

post-war economy. in 1958, u.s. unemployment spiked to 7%, which was double when he was elected four years earli earlier. what are the lessons for president obama and the democrats? should they worry about a six-year itch? i say maybe not so much. and here's why. in 2010, the party lost 63 seats in the house, 6 seats in the senate. president obama famously called it a shellacking, and it was. there's reason to think he'll do better this time around. a likely scenario, he limits his losses or even adds seats in the house. obama is almost guaranteed to do better in the house. frankly, hard to do worse than the first term. and democrats have this helpful antidote. hold on to control of the senate. the president can declare partial victory for that. that was the importance of democrats adding two senate

seats, sitting at 55. republicans have to win been, winning six senate seats is big. that's what they would have to do to get control in 2014. the gaggle will be back right after the break. the good, the bad, and the ugly of the 2012 campaign ad season. they made us laugh, some made us cringe, but which ones made people actually go out and vote. you're watching a special edition of "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. . really? [ male announcer ] alka-seltzer plus fights your worst cold symptoms, plus it relieves your runny nose. [ breathes deeply ] awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is. that's the cold truth! reminds me of our network before cdw virtualized it. how? cdw and hp networking implemented a virtual application network that reduces the time to deploy cloud applications from months to minutes. with fewer bottlenecks like this. finally. charles! client golf. aim for the lake.

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effective ads of the 2012 campaign. that's saying something in a race where nearly a billion dollars was spent on advertising alone in the presidential race. it's tough to stand out. we're all back, what was interesting here, kevin and stephanie, is both of you picked that ad as the most effective and both of you on the democratic side, and you both picked the most effective ad on the republican side. here it is. >> he tried, you tried. it's okay to make a change. >> so, i thought that was interesting. it's almost like you're respecting the other's work. kevin, you picked the america the beautiful. what -- >> i remember when that ad came out, it was previewed on a saturday morning, and we were both on "face the nation," and the first time i saw it, we were on air. i remember while it was playing, i was thinking, that is a very good ad. it's oftentimes we use the candidate's words against them.

i have never heard them using his singing against him. >> and by the way, they used it again and again and again. i could not take it. >> you remember the campaign, that's -- if you say the 2012 campaign, it is very likely you will get someone singing an off key version of "america the beautiful." >> the big problem we have and what the obama campaign tried to use to their advantage is mitt romney is not somebody you can identify with. what the heart of that ad was nobody watching that ad has, you know, accounts in the caymans. it seemed something to them they could not identify with. it made it their point. >> it was a light touch, that always is the most effective, the light touch, and the singing gave him that. >> it's the perfect juxtaposition. he's singing about america the beautiful, and it forces you to look at the tv, and you see it scroll down. cayman island investments, swiss bank account. if he believes in america, why is he investing overseas. >> let's jump to the rnc ad.

you thought it was the most effective attack ad on the president, and you were wondering, where did it go? >> that was the argument we worried most about. democrats consoldalted. republicans consolidated. there was a small segment in the middle, many of whom voted for the president but who weren't ready to say they wanted another four years. it was a perfect message to them. he tried, you tried. let's move forward. >> respond to that, why didn't you use that? >> it was something that buoyed the president, the personal likability factor. but the people felt that this was something that if we're going to focus on the economy, it's something we go out there, that was a mistake, and stephanie has pointed out, which is we didn't do it on a much more broad and sustained way. we only did it in precise hits here and there. >> i thought the negative ads were within bounds. where things weren't within bounds all the time was on the

senate level. i have a little bit of a best of of some of the most negative ads of the cycle. >> carmona is not who he seems. he has issues with anger, with ethics, and with women. >> with a history of bar brawls, altercations and road rage, a trail of unpaid debts and tax liens, one of the worst attendance records in congress this year. >> mitt romney made over $100 million by shutting down our plant and devastating our lives. turns out when we built that stage, it was like building my own coffin. >> we spend so much american money that you borrow more and more from us. your economy get very weak. ours get very good. we take your jobs. thank you. >> perry, all of them, that was sort of the best of. there was a hackishness to the negative ads on the senate

level. >> the priority usa ones at times were very aggressive, on the line, but they hdid a good job of being on the level. if you look at ohio, i think the ads made a difference there. obama at times condemning super pacs. >> the let's remember the connie mack time. >> this is a guy who got in a bar fight with ron gant. >> he was 22. >> you're an idiot college kid, you're an idiot college kid. >> in campaigns, we focus so much on the presidential, but you can only really hate those who you know extremely well. it's like the pta board race is always really -- you can only dislike the people -- so the lower down you get where you know more of the race, the presidential race, they know each other in the vaguest sense. >> i started out in city politics, i have seen races that are ten times worse. >> it's the hardest thing this

year, and i think you were talking about it, breaking through. you were talking about your ad that broke through virally was big bird. >> yes, actually, without any money behind it. 5 million people. >> big bird never aired on actual television. >> it did, it was part of what we call our rotation, but just putting it out in the media, 5 million people went to the website to see it. >> here is the most viral ad of 2012. >> together, we can do this. we can take this country back. ♪ i am america ♪ one voice united we stand ♪ i am america >> here it is. does it get any better? >> it was a great ad. at the same time, he had no desire whatsoever to be president. >> like, wow, this is totally fascinating if you're not trying to be a presidential candidate. >> first of all, i'm very

anti-staff staffer. i really think we need any tv ads for any candidates i work for. >> good advice for other staffers. >> all right, gaggle, let's take it with us. d.c.'s favorite political parlor game is 2016. when you have an open seat for the presidency, it's open season for us to talk about it. you can check us out on our website, always follow us on facebook, we'll be right back. i love the holidays. and with my bankamericard cash rewards credit card, i love 'em even more. i earn 1% cash back everywhere, every time. 2% on groceries. 3% on gas. automatically. no hoops to jump through. that's 1% back on... [ toy robot sounds ] 2% on pumpkin pie. and apple. 3% back on 4 trips to the airport. it's as easy as... -[ man ] 1... -[ woman ] 2... [ woman ] 3. [ male announcer ] the bankamericard cash rewards card.

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coordinator of iowa. >> i think i mentioned i have a warm regard for the people of iowa and new hampshire. >> plenty of party favorites are flirting with a 2016 run, but let's be honest. there's one potential dynasty do-over that dominates the early moves in both parties. let's bring back the gaggle. i look at this and say it's bush, it's clinton, it's for all the marbles. it's the rematch. if we don't get jeb and hillary, what are we going to do with ourselves? >> good question, chuck. >> i love primaries. >> i love great generals more. come on. >> this would be that time where you're like, what if hillary clinton ran for senate and rudy giuliani -- >> i think the closest thing would be kennedy/nixon. >> two titanic figures in the party. >> it's not too far fetched to think that could happen. if hillary clinton does run, i find it hard to believe that the

andrew cuomos and martin o'malleys of the world stay in. less clear for jeb. he's kind of the idealogical, the guy who can mash the conservatives and the kind of establishment. >> the purist versus the pragmatist. >> it's not clear to me that clinton is the natural heir to the obama coalition. is she to you? >> there is no natural heir. people want you to earn it. i think there's no argument out there that she hasn't earned it. she has. and you know, i think that she has done remarkably well as the secretary of state. and who was talking about it earlier? kevin was. that when she speaks, everybody in this country listens. you know, she is a voice of authority on so many issues. and also, this is the year of the woman. >> it's going to happen. and perry, here are the two most

popular figures we tested in the last nbc/wall street journal poll, boast weth were named cli. bill and hillary, their approval ratings higher than the president's. >> that said, she's an overwhelming favorite. the heir, interesting thing stephanie said, i don't think the heir is joe biden if hillary clinton doesn't run. i think elizabeth warren, if she were the run in 2016, she would have a great chance to defeat someone if it was not hillary clinton. >> the whole joe biden thing, i think we underestimate him at our own peril. he's vice president of the united states. >> a secret weapon. >> a weird thing. >> and he's very good -- people, he gets character. he makes a lot of mistakes, if you watch him on the stump, he is very good at connecting. he is. he does make mistakes. >> you guys love him. your party loves to mock him. you think he's a joke? >> i think he has been built

into the obama organization, and that's how he's flourished. i think he has a lot of people within the media who really like him. i think if this were, and i hate to play my media bias card, if he were a republican, he would be caricatured much worse than he really is. i don't see him, to stephanie's point, you cannot sort of borrow or live or or be an heir to someone else's organization. >> bush temporarily did it with reagan in '88. >> nowadays, you would have to build and manage and own your own organization. i don't see any of these heirs or passing of the torches. >> i agree with that, there is no heir, but joe biden is formidable. he really was our secret weapon out there, ohio, iowa, wisconsin. he lived in those states. >> if she doesn't run, i'm not betting on cuomo over joe biden. >> i would. i would definitely -- >> it's the same argument we

made for hillary clinton. she's going to have the money, she's got the establishment and all good people around her. andrew cuomo does not come into the race as formidable as hillary clinton looked in 2007. >> what about a republican? how do you prevent a republican primary picture that you guys had, which i think a lot of you folks in romney world believe the republican primaries hurt romney. >> the debates became a bit of a side show. if you looked at the volatility of the electorate and how the numbers went up and down based on debate performances and the side show they became, that was something that had a very big effect. i think the rnc could step in and take more of a management role in the process there and have an impact on an eventual nominee and have that nominee much more viably positions for a general election. >> so you election. >> a fairly large field, jeb would shrink it a bit, but without jeb, boy, i think seven,

eight serious people. >> unlike the '12 feed where you had rick santorum is the last guy standing? i should have gone to vegas and bet and been a millionaire. you have real people, paul ryan, the vp nominee, bobby jindal, marco rubio, a senator, you know, john thune that nobody talks about. you've got real people. >> and let me throw out another name. of the four governors of florida, wisconsin, michigan, ohio, whoever survives will run for president. >> let me add, the 2016 ticket doesn't have a woman or some minority in capacity. >> i thought for sure there had be a woman on the ticket in the democratic party and there hasn't been one yet since

ferraro. who was the first president -- the answer is james monroe and ronald reagan, first time the inaugurate date fell on a sunday was, and the most recent was 1985. president obama's second inaugural will fall on a sunday, which means he'll take the oath and do an oath for the public the next day. you have a question for us? we'll be right back with predictions and plugs from our gaggle. ameteorology toss mr. muck laughlin. we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation.

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let's bring back the gaggle. if i pose this question to you, kevin, a year from now, we will say 2013 was about what in washington? >> i think a lot has to do with the republican party will try to

modernize their message, but i think the two parties are now in an effort to energize their base and get things doing will be looking at two big issues, tax reform, general disagreement. >> where they agree on things like corporate rate and that tax reform and also immigration reform. >> stephanie, let me put it a slightly different way. how long does the second term last? sometimes they don't last four years domestically. >> well, they last four years, but there's a shelf life to what you can get done. people will start looking at the mid terms pretty quickly. 2013 is a very important year to get things done. tax reform, immigration reform, we have to fin implementing the health care law. a year from now people will be signing up for exchanges all across the country. >> we don't know if barack obama is a liberal or mott rat, at the end of next year -- is we will

really know by next year. >> couch nelle, -- couch necessarilyi, mcauliffe? >> it's sfp interesting. you've really -- >> does he win? >> if -- >> it will be known as the year that america gets comfortable with gale marriage. that's it for this special edition. watch us every weekday at 9:00 a.m. happy holidays, happy new year. be safe from all of us at "the daily rundown." portions were much larger. and i just felt like i needed to eat it all because it was so yummy. weight watchers online worked for me

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